CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-02-20T00:00:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2025 Feb 21 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50221
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Feb 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 184 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 184 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Feb 2025  10CM FLUX: 184 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were
identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was
low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The
largest flare was a C4.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3663) peaking on February 20 at
15:01 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region
3996). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24
hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.


Coronal mass ejections: A wide CME erupting towards the west was seen on 20
February at 00:24 UTC (first seen by LASCO C2), related to a C8.1 flare and
a type-II radio burst. The CME speed is estimated to be around 400 km/s, a
glancing blow from this CME may be observed at Earth on 24 February. A
filament erupted then in the SE quadrant, leading to a CME seen at 10:00 UT
on 20 February, that is not expected to arrive to the Earth.

Solar wind: The solar wind speed at Earth has decreased to 350 km/s in the
last 24 hours, with an interplanetary magnetic field currently around 5 nT.
Similar slow solar wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled globally
and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 3). Similar conditions can be expected for
the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the
threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and 18 electron
flux has been below the threshold in the last 24 hours It is expected to
remain below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron
fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the
next 24 hours.

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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